The ultimate success of this season hinges upon how far the youth have developed.
Because there were no major offseason additions, the 2012-13 Spurs will be expecting improvement from within. There is a fine symmetry in the way the roster has been constructed by R.C. Buford. Players still on rookie contracts have been and/or are being integrated into the Spurs culture under the veteran leadership of Popovich, Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili.
Dejuan Blair, who had been disappointed in being cut out of the playoff rotation, is now back on the same page with the Spurs. Blair is a 23-year-old beastly talent entering into his third year. Last season, he struggled with fitness and defense--two things that a young player, especially a young motivated player, can be expected to improve upon with more experience.
Derrick Brown is 25 and an explosive athlete. Corey Joseph has potential as a defensive ace. Nando de Colo is a Ginobili-esque combo guard who won the 2010 Eurocup Championship with his teammate Tiago Splitter.
Which brings us to the forefront of the youth movement--Splitter and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard really is the biggest factor to the Spurs championship hopes, but let's start with Splitter because his development has been two years in the making. Splitter, the 2010 Spanish League MVP, has spent his tour on American shores learning the finer intricacies of not only the NBA, but of the Spurs culture and offense.
After two years of grooming, the 27-year-old Splitter is now entering his prime. What he lacks in some areas--rebounding and defense--he makes up for as a devastatingly effective scorer. Splitter put up a 20.5 PER last year which tied him with Pau Gasol for the 16th highest PER in the NBA. As mentioned above, he'll also be playing with his former Valencia teammate de Colo who won it all in Europe together. Splitter's deal is up after the season and talented centers are in short supply. Roy Hibbert got a max $58 million deal. DeAndre Jordan and Javale McGee signed $40+ million deals in consecutive summers. There's literally millions of reasons for Splitter to have a fantastic year.
Historically, European big men have taken a couple of seasons to break out. Luis Scola (a two-time Spanish League MVP) broke out during his third year. Marc Gasol, another Spanish League MVP, shot 58 percent his second year and averaged 15 ppg, 9 rpg, 2.5 apg, a steal and 1.5 bpg. In fact, while there's been a negative stereotype regarding European big men thanks to high draft pick busts like Darko Milicic and Yaraslov Korolev, a glance around the league reveals that Euro big men have quietly taken over the NBA. Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, Anderson Verejao, Andrew Bogut, Nene Hilario, Serge Ibaka and Marcin Gortat are all starters expected to play major roles with their respective teams. Then there's guys like Nikola Pekovic (who was nearly as important as Ricky Rubio to the success that the Timberwolves enjoyed last year), Nikola Vucevic (who will be battling Gustavo Ayon to fill the gaping void at center for the Orlando Magic), and Ersan Illyasova, a European Kevin Love.
All that to say, Splitter is set to have a terrific season.
Also prepped and ready to step up in a big way is Leonard. Popovich believes the 21-year-old will one day be the face of the Spurs franchise. In an interview on NBA.com Pop shared his thoughts saying, "he's going to be a star" and then expounded with the adjective "coachable" and the metaphor "sponge."
And if that's what Popovich thinks about the SDSU alum, who's to argue? Leonard had an impressive rookie season despite a two-day training camp, limited practice time, a condensed schedule, and the responsibility of being a starter while auditioning for the defensive stopper role. He shot better than anyone expected hitting 37 percent from deep, and ended up as a first team all NBA rookie selection as well as fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. He started his offseason, playing on the Olympic Select squad where he had the opportunity to square off against Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant. I mentioned in the New York Knicks preview post, that nearly everyone who has played for the USA Olympic/World organization under Jerry Colangelo, has come back the following season a much improved player. Many have had career seasons.
If Leonard can improve his defense and become the type of scorer that demands double teams, and if Splitter does indeed live up to his potential, the Spurs would then have the best five-man rotation in the NBA and come playoff time would have an excellent opportunity to make Duncan's fifth Finals.
Even if Splitter and Leonard are the exact same players as they were last year, because of the team's elite depth, I believe the Spurs will still be able to achieve the best record in the Western Conference (for the third straight season) and earn homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs.
The
Spurs have it all. They have the veteran HOF core with four
championships. A trio of potential breakout stars. Incredible depth. Superior
coaching. And most valuable of all, a culture of continuity.
What other team in the league can say that?
Oh, and did I mention it's an odd year?
Prediction:
Spurs will make it to the Western Conference Finals. If they can beat the Thunder or the Lakers, they will win the 2013 championship.
Kawhi Leonard wins Most Improved Player. Parker finishes sixth in MVP
voting.
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